Poll authorized by the Central Electoral Commission by CEC Decision no.2850 of 12.09.2024.

The share of citizens opting for the European vector of the Republic of Moldova increased from 57% in April 2024 to 63% in September 2024.

This is one of the findings of the most recent survey measuring public opinion conducted by the CBS-Axa Center for Sociological Research and Marketing at the request of the Aspen Institute Romania, the Foreign Policy Association APE and the WatchDog.MD Community.

Infographic 1. 63% of Moldovans support Moldova’s EU integration

Residents of the Republic of Moldova consider that the group that is against the process of Moldova’s integration into the EU is in the minority. When asked whether the majority of the Moldovan population currently supports the country’s EU membership or is against it, almost 53% believe that the majority does, 33% do not, and another 15% are not entirely convinced.

Infographic 2. More than half of the population of the Republic of Moldova know that those who do not support European integration are in the minority.

There is a curious difference between the number of those who support EU integration and the number of those who believe that the majority of the population supports this decision. This paradox persists despite the fact that absolutely all published polls show majority support for the European vector. This is one of the effects of disinformation and manipulation campaigns. Thus, only 75% of those who support EU membership believe that the majority of Moldovans support it. In contrast, 65% of those against the EU believe that they are the majority. However, we see some progress in this respect. For example, in May, only 70% of pro-Europeans were aware that they represent a majority.

 

The voter intention to participate in the October 20 constitutional referendum and presidential elections has increased.

The majority of Moldovans are showing resilience in the face of numerous falsehoods and manipulations aimed at discouraging them from participating in the referendum. The majority are determined to go to the polls to decide the long-term strategic development goal of the country.

While in August about 66% of respondents said they would go and vote in both the presidential election and the referendum, and about 10% were undecided, in September the number of undecided voters dropped by 3.5%. Participation in both the referendum and the presidential elections increased by 2% and about the same percentage increased for those who say they will only participate in the presidential elections.

Infographic 3. Participation in the October 20 constitutional referendum and presidential elections has increased

This trend, however, has to be correlated with the situation of an increasingly toxic information space which is perceived as an impediment to the country’s progress by half of Moldova’s inhabitants.

Infographic 4. More than half of Moldovans believe that disinformation and manipulation of public opinion by external actors contribute greatly to the setback in the Republic of Moldova

 

One of the toxic messages used by referendum opponents to divide society suggests that the diaspora should not have the right to participate in the referendum.

This not only seriously undermines the right of any citizen of the Republic of Moldova to participate in the country’s elections, but it is a statement which is not supported by more than 60% of the country’s inhabitants.

Infographic 5.  Diaspora’s right to participate in the referendum should not be infringed, say 6 out of 10

Last but not least, some political leaders insinuate that the constitutional referendum would not matter for the process of European integration, urging people not to express their opinion. However, the September poll data show that despite the lies, 69% of Moldovans believe that the referendum on October 20, 2024 is an important step in the EU accession process that must be carried out now in order not to miss this historic opportunity.

Infographic 6. Despite disinformation, 69% of Moldovans say constitutional referendum matters for EU integration

The substantial support for the country’s European course is primarily pragmatic. Six out of ten Moldovans are aware that Moldova does not have the resources to build prosperity without external support.

Infographic 7. Some 64% of respondents in a recent survey are aware that without external financial support Moldova cannot become a prosperous country

The front-runners in the Moldovan presidential and parliamentary elections

Poll authorized by the Central Electoral Commission by CEC Decision no.2850 of 12.09.2024.

For the presidential elections of October 20, 2024, the Central Electoral Commission registered 11 candidates. Despite the diversity of candidates, current President Maia Sandu is the front-runner for the presidential seat.

Maia Sandu is followed by Alexandr Stoianoglo, a PSRM-backed candidate, Renato Usatii (Our Party) and Irina Vlah, an independent candidate.

The other candidates scored between 0 and 3%.  However, 22% of the country’s population has not yet made a clear decision on how to vote in the presidential elections. Therefore, the score of the first four candidates could fluctuate slightly over the coming weeks.

Infographic 1. Presidential voter preferences – September 2024 

Compared to August 2024, none of the presidential candidates saw a significant increase in ratings. However, the variety of options available can be seen to slightly increase people’s level of indecision and make them more hesitant.

Infographic 2. Respondents’ preferences in August vs. September, 2024 presidential polls

For the parliamentary elections, although most of the data reflect preferences for presidential candidates (PAS, PSRM, Our Part), the “Victory” Bloc also comes into the top, as it would enter parliament if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday.

However, for the parliamentary elections, there is still a higher percentage of undecided voters than in the presidential elections – 30% compared to 22%, with another 9% saying they would not vote for any party or would not participate in the elections. Overall, almost 43% of voters did not indicate a preferred candidate in the parliamentary elections, down from less than 25% in August. This significant increase can be explained by the total shift of attention to the referendum and presidential elections.

Infographic 3. Parties’ electoral ratings in parliamentary elections.

Infographic 4. Respondents’ preferences in August versus September, for 2024 parliamentary elections

The data was collected within the project “Defining and combating anti-Western narratives in the Republic of Moldova” implemented by the Aspen Institute Romania – Chisinau Office together with the Foreign Policy Association APE and the Watchdog Moldova Community.

Research methodology:

✔ Sample size: 1021 people aged 18 years and older;

✔ Sample: stratified, probabilistic, bistadial;

✔ Survey type: computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI)

✔ Representativeness: the sample is representative of the adult population of the Republic of Moldova, with a +3.1% maximum error

✔ Data collection period: September 13 – September 22, 2024. The questionnaire was available in Romanian and Russian, giving respondents the possibility to choose the language of the interview.

✔ The sample includes only residents of the Republic of Moldova at the time of the telephone interview.

OPEN THE OPINION POLL HERE.

The survey was organized within the framework of the project “Defining and combating anti-Western narratives in the Republic of Moldova”, implemented by the ASPEN Institute Romania in partnership with the Association for Foreign Policy and Community “WatchDog.MD” with the financial support of the Black Sea Trust of the German Marshall Fund.

The conclusions in this material do not necessarily represent the position of the donor and are the sole responsibility of the authors.