Very important changes are taking place in the Kremlin’s policy (including) towards Moldova. And it’s not good! LONGREAD
Explanation: On August 29, Putin convened a meeting of the Security Council. Although no details about the decisions taken were released to the press, the topic announced by Putin was “Russian policy in the CIS region.” The decisions were not made public, as is usually the case with this council attached to the Russian dictator. However, later that same evening, a decree by Putin appeared ordering the liquidation of two directorates that “coordinated” Russia’s policies (i.e., interference) in the post-Soviet space. These are the Directorate of the President of the Russian Federation for Cross-Border Cooperation (RUS: Управление Президента Российской Федерации по приграничному сотрудничеству), and the Directorate of the President of the Russian Federation for Interregional and Cultural Relations with Foreign Countries (seriously, what a dumb name), (RUS: Управление Президента Российской Федерации по межрегиональным и культурным связям с зарубежными странами).
The first directorate is headed by Alexei Filatov and, among other things, has been responsible for Russia’s aggressive policies in Moldova over the past four years. The other department is headed by SVR Colonel Igor Maslov, who succeeded SVR General Vladimir Cernov a few years ago. Rise Moldova and the DOSSIER Center wrote about these two guys in great, juicy detail on the eve of the 2020 elections (Kremlinovici). Between at least 2012 and 2021, Cernov coordinated Russian interference in Moldova, while Maslov served as his deputy, specifically responsible for Moldova. Since 2019, these two departments have operated directly under the coordination of Dmitry Kozak.
Now these directorates have now been dissolved and replaced by a new one “for strategic partnership and cooperation.” This is according to the same decree issued by Putin. According to various sources, this department will be responsible not only for the Kremlin’s policies in the post-Soviet space, but also in the “Global South.” But more importantly, the new structure will operate under the authority of Sergei Kirienko. Officially, he is the deputy head of the presidential administration. Unofficially, he is the second most powerful man in Putin’s Russia. The news following the security council meeting does not stop there. Two pieces of information have already emerged from sources – Dmitry Milyutin, FSB general in Directorate 5, responsible for carrying out Russia’s hybrid aggression in our region, has been dismissed. He is being blamed for the failure of interference in the Moldovan elections and Maia Sandu’s victory in 2024. The same Rise wrote about Milyutin in detail (recommended for reading). Since 2016, he has headed the FSB’s Directorate 5 subdivision, which is directly responsible for the Republic of Moldova. We are yet to see the fate of Milyutin’s deputies–Valerii Soloha (head of operations on the right bank of the Dniester) and Ivan Koroli (coordinator of the Transnistrian MGB). According to sources, Albert Stepigin has been appointed to replace Milyutin as head of the FSB’s. Like the new head of the famous FSB Directorate 5, appointed to replace Sergei Beseda, he comes from the FSB’s Internal Security Directorate. Why is this important? Because both come from the directorate responsible for internal politics in Russia, meaning that Kirienko is bringing in his trusted people, with whom he dismantled the opposition in Russia, to take over foreign intelligence operations.
Russian sources report that Kozak is set to be transferred to the position of presidential representative for the North-West region. In other words, Kirienko has definitively “taken him out”. A sad moment to Dodon, with lots of champagne opened by Shor and his cronies.
Why is this not good news for the Republic of Moldova? First, let’s remember who Sergei Kirienko is. (By the way, you can find a link to a very good analysis by our colleague Vida Nedova in the comments). He is cynical, betrays even those closest to him, has little regard for human life, and will carry out any vile act. He is part of a sort of sect, the Methodologists, whose core principle is that the result must be achieved at any cost. A sophisticated yet ruthless character. He has been “involved” in matters concerning Moldova since around 2023. Do you remember how enthusiastic he was during the meeting with Guțul? It is understandable. Shor has a long-standing and close relationship with the family of Dmitri Peskov, the Kremlin dictator’s spokesperson.
Throughout this entire period, he had to somehow share responsibility with Kozak. About two months ago, however, he launched an offensive against him. Kirienko was clearly behind the media attacks on Kozak. He used leaks to the New York Times and a few so-called “liberal” political commentators who had fled the country (and now live quite comfortably on German and European grants). In those leaks, Kozak was portrayed as an opponent of the war (which may well be true, I don’t know), and Kirienko was depicted as being responsible only for Transnistria. The latter is obviously false, since it is Kirienko who coordinates Shor’s subversive activities. After such a “rebranding,” Putin was forced to take measures against Kozak. Even though he has been a close ally and confidant since the early days in St. Petersburg.
Now Kirienko has taken over key aspects of Russia’s foreign policy. This comes on top of the quasi-total control he already holds over domestic politics (appointments, sham elections) and the occupied territories. He will need to deliver quick results. Russia has suffered nothing but major setbacks abroad in recent years. The war against Ukraine is going nowhere near as the Kremlin would like; the European Union is not falling apart, but instead showing signs of maturity and consolidation; and Syria has been lost miserably to Turkey. In Africa, Russian influence has not declined significantly, but its expansion has stalled, and its presence in Libya is threatened by Turkey. Putin helplessly swallowed Israel’s devastating offensive against Iran. The countries of Central Asia, especially Kazakhstan, are distancing themselves from Russia and moving closer to China, but also to the EU, pursuing a policy that is increasingly autonomous from the Kremlin. The most painful losses, however, have occurred in the South Caucasus.
Despite its proximity to Russia, the regime of oligarch Ivanishvili cannot be described as fully subordinate to the Kremlin, let alone the Georgian people. Azerbaijan openly challenges Russian influence. Trump and Erdogan have dealt a heavy blow to Russian influence. The former has simply excluded Russia from the negotiations between Yerevan and Baku (a point worth noting for conspiracy theorists who claim Trump is a Russian agent). As soon as Russia was no longer involved, peace was signed. In South America, the last pro-Kremlin bastion, Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, is under threat from the US. And Putin will watch helplessly, whatever happens. All these directions are now in Kirienko’s hands. And he will have to deliver at least one outcome that can be served to Putin as a geopolitical victory.
The next opportunities for Krienko to achieve something are the parliamentary elections in Armenia and Moldova. The Armenians will elect their deputies only next year, while we will do so in four weeks. So brace yourselves! Actions without any moral limits are coming! Putin’s sociopathic “efficient manager” will go all in. He has all the necessary tools. The budgets are unlimited. What they have spent so far is peanuts compared to what is coming. They have struck a deal with Plahotniuc, who also has his own personal interest. You can imagine that he is not too eager to spend too much time in Prison No. 13. He will throw around compromising information, both true and fabricated. On the eve of the elections, anything goes. The bad part is that whatever falsehoods Plaha puts out, Moldovans will believe that he could have such things. Because he has collected plenty of dirt over the years. We’ll see. He and Șor already tried this in the past with fake videos targeting Maia Sandu, and it didn’t work out too well for them. Plaha will blackmail people from the judiciary and politics, all in order to get out of jail before the elections. All kinds of “pro-Europeans” will come out, including some who at times have been close with the government, with alleged revelations and accusations.
Kirienko has two dozen parties and independent candidates at his disposal. They are already obediently playing their assigned roles. They will not attack each other, they will only target the genuinely pro-European parties. Dodon, Vlah, Usatii, Furtuna, Costiuc, Lupu, and many others keep parroting the same narratives. Written in the same laboratory in Moscow. From there, young people from the Republic of Moldova are also recruited to “coordinate activists” (see the revelations on Diez MD in the comments). When was the last time you heard Dodon or Shor’s people criticize Ceban? Or Usatii? How often has Renato lately called Dodon a “turkey”? Or maybe you can remind me when any of them condemned vote buying in the Shor’s network? Or Stoianoglo? What can we expect from him – he said even before the presidential elections that he is on very good terms with Shor. Or maybe we fail to grasp how Ceban will start trembling at the mere thought of Plahotniuc releasing the video of him taking the “kuliok” (the notorious bag of cash from the Dodon and Plahotniuc scandal; a symbol of corruption in Moldova) when he left the PCRM? Or has Ion Chicu already forgotten the smell of turkey feathers thrown over the fence?
Kirienko will want a pro-Russian majority after the elections. Who can he count on? They will try to buy deputies from PAS or from other parties that manage to cross the threshold. If they fail to form a pro-Russian government on the first attempt, they will try to trigger early elections. They will organize protests. Already, through the mouths of their political servants here, the narrative that the elections will be rigged is being promoted, recycling the same lies that last year’s elections were stolen. In particular, they attack the vote abroad. And this despite the fact that their own parties have representatives in every polling station!
If he cannot put in place a 100% compliant government, Kirienko will at least try to destabilize the political situation to such an extent that we miss the window of opportunity to join the EU. He is desperate to deliver results. He will not stop short of bloody provocations, especially since Russia already tried to incite violence in 2022. I would not even rule out the possibility of them provoking something in the Transnistrian region.
As I said before, fasten your seatbelts and go vote! No matter what challenges this black cardinal of the Kremlin and his minions in Moldova may have in store for us.